All resolved pollsResolved · 30 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ArgentinaWon · Crowd had 88%4
BoliviaCrowd had 7%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Argentina won 4–0.

Argentina vs Bolivia 617 verified humans answered. No gap to speak of: crowd and market converged almost perfectly on every option.

88%Crowd on Argentina
88%Market price
0Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

617 verified humans · one human, one vote
ArgentinaWhat happened88%546 voters
Bolivia7%41 voters
Tie5%30 voters
Argentina won, so 88% of the crowd called it. The market had Argentina at 88%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
88%546 voters
Argentina

An overwhelming consensus: the crowd saw Argentina as the clear and dominant force, leaving almost no room for doubt or dissent.

Scenario 2
7%41 voters
Bolivia

A small but present minority held out for Bolivia, imagining an upset that the vast bulk of the crowd considered a remote possibility.

Scenario 3
5%30 voters
Tie

The thinnest slice of the crowd envisioned a stalemate, a scenario almost entirely dismissed by the collective read of the 617 voters.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.02
Brier score
0.02

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
546 of 617

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.