The crowd backed Manchester United. Tie won 2–2.
Everton vs Manchester United: how does it end? 701 verified humans answered. Crowd piled on Manchester United, far above market, draw proved both wrong.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Manchester United than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
An overwhelming majority saw United leaving Goodison with the points, a near-consensus that left almost no room for any other reading of the match.
A small slice of the crowd held firm for a home win, a minority view that ran against the dominant tide of United confidence in the room.
Fewer than one in ten voters pictured the sides level at the final whistle, making a draw the most overlooked scenario across the entire crowd.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.52
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.