The crowd backed Montevideo City Torque. It finished 1–1.
Montevideo City Torque vs Peñarol 606 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on Torque win; both sides underweighted the draw that arrived.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Montevideo City Torque than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Torque take the derby, a home win the market was far less convinced by than the verified voters were.
A near-even split: close to half the crowd saw Peñarol leaving with the points, matching the market's own assessment of the away side almost exactly.
The crowd's least-favoured scenario: a shared spoils finish that barely registered in the collective read, sitting well below the market's own draw estimate.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.08
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.