All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026Upset
Palmeiras vs Santos: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

Palmeiras vs Santos: how does it end?

Palmeiras vs Santos: how does it end? 722 verified humans answered. Crowd well below market on Palmeiras, well above on Santos. Tie rendered both reads moot.

49%Crowd on Palmeiras
64%Market price
-15Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

722 verified humans · one human, one vote
PalmeirasCrowd’s pick49%352 voters
Santos39%281 voters
TieWhat happened12%89 voters
Tie won, so 12% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 49% did not. The market had Palmeiras at 64%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
64%
49%
Crowd
-15 ppts

The crowd was less confident in Palmeiras than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
49%352 voters
Palmeiras

The crowd's plurality vision: Palmeiras in control, taking the win. The most common call, though held with less conviction than the market assigned it.

Scenario 2
39%281 voters
Santos

A striking counter-narrative: Santos pulling off the result, backed by far more of the crowd than the market thought warranted.

Scenario 3Came true
12%89 voters
Tie

The smallest slice of the crowd saw neither side breaking through. A stalemate that the market and the crowd both treated as the least likely ending.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.17
Brier score
1.17

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
89 of 722

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.