All resolved pollsResolved · 19 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
Montevideo City Torque vs Tigre: how does it end?
Montevideo City Torque 2–1 Tigre
The verdict

Montevideo City Torque 2–1 Tigre

Montevideo City Torque vs Tigre: how does it end? 664 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on home win, well below on draw and Tigre. The home win landed.

50%Crowd on Reg Time: Montevideo City
35%Market price
+15Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

664 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: Montevideo CityWhat happened50%333 voters
Reg Time: Tigre30%202 voters
Reg Time: Tie19%129 voters
Reg Time: Montevideo City won, so 50% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Montevideo City at 35%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
35%
50%
Crowd
+15 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Montevideo City than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
50%333 voters
Reg Time: Montevideo City

Half the crowd saw Montevideo City controlling proceedings at home and coming away with the win in regulation time.

Scenario 2
30%202 voters
Reg Time: Tigre

Nearly a third of voters pictured Tigre silencing the home crowd, taking the points away from Montevideo City in regulation.

Scenario 3
19%129 voters
Reg Time: Tie

A smaller but meaningful share of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking the deadlock, the spoils shared after ninety minutes.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.38
Brier score
0.38

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
333 of 664

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.