All resolved pollsResolved · 29 AUG 2026Upset
BournemouthCrowd had 34%1
EvertonCrowd's pick · 50%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Everton. Tie won 1–1.

Bournemouth vs Everton: how does it end? 705 verified humans answered. Crowd on Everton at twice the market rate, draw lands for both sides.

50%Crowd on Everton
26%Market price
+24Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

705 verified humans · one human, one vote
EvertonCrowd’s pick50%355 voters
Bournemouth34%239 voters
TieWhat happened16%111 voters
Tie won, so 16% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 50% did not. The market had Everton at 26%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
26%
50%
Crowd
+24 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Everton than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
50%355 voters
Everton

Half the crowd pictured Everton leaving Bournemouth with the three points, a conviction far outpacing what the market was willing to price.

Scenario 2
34%239 voters
Bournemouth

A third of the crowd saw Bournemouth winning at home, though the crowd's belief here ran well short of where the market had the hosts priced.

Scenario 3Came true
16%111 voters
Tie

Only a small slice of the crowd envisioned the spoils shared, making the draw the crowd's least-held vision and a below-market read on stalemate.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.07
Brier score
1.07

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
111 of 705

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.