The crowd called it — Atlético Mineiro won 2–1.
Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro: how does it end? 726 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Atlético Mineiro win, well below on a draw. And the result followed the crowd's lean.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Atlético Mineiro than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
A majority of the crowd saw Atlético Mineiro taking the derby, backing the home side with clear collective conviction against a market that rated a draw almost as likely.
A sizeable minority held firm on Cruzeiro pulling off the result, keeping faith in the visitors despite the crowd's broader lean the other way.
A small slice of the crowd envisioned the derby ending level, a scenario the market rated far more seriously than the verified voters did.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.33
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.