All resolved pollsResolved · 25 AUG 2026Upset
Bodø/Glimt vs NEC: how does it end?
Resolved
The verdict

Bodø/Glimt vs NEC: how does it end?

Bodø/Glimt vs NEC: how does it end? 696 verified humans answered. Crowd well below market on the home side, well above on NEC. The gap that mattered most when the upset landed.

47%Crowd on Bodø/Glimt
60%Market price
-13Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

696 verified humans · one human, one vote
Bodø/GlimtCrowd’s pick47%329 voters
NECWhat happened34%235 voters
Tie19%132 voters
NEC won, so 34% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 47% did not. The market had Bodø/Glimt at 60%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
60%
47%
Crowd
-13 ppts

The crowd was less confident in Bodø/Glimt than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
47%329 voters
Bodø/Glimt

The crowd's plurality vision: Bodø/Glimt controlling proceedings at home and seeing the match out as winners on their own turf.

Scenario 2Came true
34%235 voters
NEC

A substantial minority saw NEC leaving Norway with the points, rating the visitors' chances far higher than the market was willing to price.

Scenario 3
19%132 voters
Tie

Roughly one in five voters pictured neither side breaking the deadlock, the spoils shared after a closely contested ninety minutes.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.69
Brier score
0.69

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
235 of 696

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.