The crowd backed SE Palmeiras. Fluminense FC won 0–1.
Palmeiras vs Fluminense 569 verified humans answered. Crowd ran warmer on Fluminense than the market, cooler on Palmeiras, and the upset landed on the underweighted side.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in SE Palmeiras than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's modal vision: Palmeiras controlling proceedings at home and converting that home advantage into a straightforward Brazilian Serie A victory.
A sizable minority saw Fluminense as live, rating them well above the market's price and picturing an away side capable of causing a genuine upset.
The crowd's least-favoured scenario: a stalemate in which neither side could separate themselves, leaving the contest unresolved after ninety minutes.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.70
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.