The crowd called it — Newell's Old Boys won 2–1.
Newell's Old Boys vs Banfield: how does it end? 633 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Newell's, crowd and market both well below market on the draw, and Newell's landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Newell's Old Boys than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Newell's controlling home ground, converting enough to see off Banfield and take the three points.
A strong dissenting bloc saw Banfield as the away side capable of silencing Newell's and leaving with the win.
A small but present fringe imagined neither side breaking the deadlock, the points shared and both camps frustrated.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.45
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.