All resolved pollsResolved · 5 OCT 2026Upset
Vélez Sarsfield2
Platense2
The verdict

The crowd backed CA Vélez Sarsfield. It finished 2–2.

Vélez Sarsfield vs Platense 579 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Platense, well below on the draw. The result landed in the gap both sides underweighted.

50%Crowd on CA Vélez Sarsfield
51%Market price
-1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

579 verified humans · one human, one vote
CA Vélez SarsfieldCrowd’s pick50%291 voters
CA Platense28%164 voters
TieWhat happened21%124 voters
It was a draw, so 21% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 50% did not. The market had CA Vélez Sarsfield at 51%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
50%291 voters
CA Vélez Sarsfield

The crowd's dominant vision: Vélez controlling proceedings at home and securing the three points, making this the clear majority read across the verified pool.

Scenario 2
28%164 voters
CA Platense

A meaningful minority saw Platense pulling off the away win, a read the crowd held well above what the market was pricing for the visitors.

Scenario 3Came true
21%124 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured picture: a shared spoils finish that the verified pool rated as a distant third, sitting far below the market's own implied probability.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.95
Brier score
0.95

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
124 of 579

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.