The crowd called it — Heart of Midlothian won 1–3.
Hibernian vs Hearts: how does it end? 705 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Hearts, below on the Tie, in a tightly contested three-way split.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Heart of Midlothian than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's narrow top vision: Hearts crossing the city divide to claim the derby, edging out a closely contested three-way field.
A near-equal rival vision: Hibs holding home advantage and denying Hearts, backed by almost as many voters as the winning scenario.
The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate in the Edinburgh derby, drawing notably less collective conviction than either decisive outcome.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.56
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.