The crowd backed Atletico Mineiro. Tie won 1–1.
Cruzeiro vs Atlético Mineiro: how does it end? 709 verified humans answered. Crowd on Atletico Mineiro at 2.5x market weight, draw landed for both.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Atletico Mineiro than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
Half the crowd saw Atletico Mineiro leaving as winners, a dominant collective conviction that dwarfed what the market was willing to price.
Over a third of voters saw Cruzeiro taking it on home soil, aligning loosely with the market's favourite but still trailing the crowd's own top call.
A small but distinct minority held the draw, a quiet outlier view in the crowd that the market rated far more seriously than most voters did.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.12
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.