All resolved pollsResolved · 23 OCT 2026Upset
Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza1
Platense2
The verdict

The crowd backed CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza. CA Platense won 1–2.

Gimnasia (Mendoza) vs Platense 549 verified humans answered. Crowd and market both underweighted Platense, but diverged sharply on Tie vs Gimnasia.

42%Crowd on CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza
40%Market price
+2Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

549 verified humans · one human, one vote
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de MendozaCrowd’s pick42%233 voters
CA PlatenseWhat happened35%193 voters
Tie22%123 voters
CA Platense won, so 35% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 42% did not. The market had CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza at 40%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
42%233 voters
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza

The crowd's plurality vision: home advantage holds, Gimnasia controls the contest and takes all three points on their own ground.

Scenario 2Came true
35%193 voters
CA Platense

A minority but sizeable crowd vision: Platense travels well, disrupts Gimnasia's rhythm, and leaves with a surprise away victory.

Scenario 3
22%123 voters
Tie

The crowd's least favoured vision: neither side breaks through, tension cancels out ambition, and the points are shared.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.65
Brier score
0.65

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
193 of 549

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.