The crowd backed CA Huracán. Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata won 1–2.
Huracán vs Gimnasia La Plata 551 verified humans answered. Crowd overweighted Huracán, underweighted the Tie vs market, and Gimnasia upset both reads.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in CA Huracán than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Huracán controlling proceedings at home and taking the points, a read that sat well above what the market was pricing.
A minority crowd vision of Gimnasia leaving with the win, underweighted by voters and underpriced by the market alike, yet the scenario that actually unfolded.
The crowd's least-favoured scenario, with roughly one in five voters seeing honours shared, well below the weight the market assigned to a stalemate.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.68
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.