All resolved pollsResolved · 16 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors: how does it end?
River Plate 2–0 Argentinos Juniors
The verdict

River Plate 2–0 Argentinos Juniors

River Plate vs Argentinos Juniors: how does it end? 599 verified humans answered. Crowd slashes the Tie far below market price, piles into Argentinos Juniors at nearly double the odds.

52%Crowd on River Plate
48%Market price
+4Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

599 verified humans · one human, one vote
River PlateWhat happened52%312 voters
Argentinos Juniors42%254 voters
Tie6%33 voters
River Plate won, so 52% of the crowd called it. The market had River Plate at 48%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
48%
52%
Crowd
+4 ppts

The crowd was more confident in River Plate than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
52%312 voters
River Plate

The crowd's plurality vision: home dominance, River Plate controlling proceedings and sealing the result on their own turf.

Scenario 2
42%254 voters
Argentinos Juniors

A bold collective counter-narrative: Argentinos Juniors causing an upset, backed by a crowd share that dwarfed what the market implied.

Scenario 3
6%33 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured outcome by far: a stalemate that almost no voter entertained, even as the market kept it firmly in play.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.41
Brier score
0.41

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
312 of 599

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.