All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026Upset
Lyon vs Fenerbahce: how does it end?
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The verdict

Lyon vs Fenerbahce: how does it end?

Lyon vs Fenerbahce: how does it end? 715 verified humans answered. Crowd undercuts the market on Tie most sharply, while leaning Lyon above the price.

53%Crowd on Lyon
49%Market price
+4Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

715 verified humans · one human, one vote
LyonCrowd’s pick53%379 voters
FenerbahceWhat happened32%227 voters
Tie15%109 voters
Fenerbahce won, so 32% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 53% did not. The market had Lyon at 49%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
49%
53%
Crowd
+4 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Lyon than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
53%379 voters
Lyon

The crowd's dominant vision: Lyon controlling proceedings at home and seeing the tie out, the clear plurality read among verified voters.

Scenario 2Came true
32%227 voters
Fenerbahce

A significant minority pictured Fenerbahce leaving with the win, backing them above what the market implied despite being the crowd's second choice.

Scenario 3
15%109 voters
Tie

The least-backed vision: a stalemate at full time, with the crowd notably more sceptical of this outcome than the market price suggested.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.77
Brier score
0.77

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
227 of 715

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.