The crowd backed Brentford. Tie won 1–1.
Brentford vs Sunderland: how does it end? 649 verified humans answered. Crowd well below market on Brentford, well above on Sunderland. Draw landed as the shared blind spot.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Brentford than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Brentford take the home win, but with far less certainty than the market assigned to that outcome.
A striking crowd lean: Sunderland leave with the points, a scenario the crowd rated nearly as likely as a Brentford win but the market priced as a long shot.
The crowd's least-backed vision: both sides cancel each other out and share the spoils, a scenario neither crowd nor market gave much weight to.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.98
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.