All resolved pollsResolved · 19 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras: how does it end?
Cerro Porteño 0–1 Palmeiras
The verdict

Cerro Porteño 0–1 Palmeiras

Cerro Porteno vs Palmeiras: how does it end? 668 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Palmeiras win, well below on the draw, a gap that met the outcome.

61%Crowd on Reg Time: Palmeiras
54%Market price
+7Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

668 verified humans · one human, one vote
Reg Time: PalmeirasWhat happened61%405 voters
Reg Time: Cerro Porteno32%211 voters
Reg Time: Tie8%52 voters
Reg Time: Palmeiras won, so 61% of the crowd called it. The market had Reg Time: Palmeiras at 54%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
54%
61%
Crowd
+7 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Reg Time: Palmeiras than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
61%405 voters
Reg Time: Palmeiras

A clear majority of the crowd envisioned Palmeiras controlling the tie and sealing it inside ninety minutes, making this the dominant collective vision by a wide margin.

Scenario 2
32%211 voters
Reg Time: Cerro Porteno

A meaningful minority saw Cerro Porteno holding home advantage and finding a way to beat Palmeiras in regulation, a contrarian but not fringe read.

Scenario 3
8%52 voters
Reg Time: Tie

Only a small slice of the crowd pictured the sides level after ninety minutes, a scenario the crowd treated as far less likely than the market did.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.26
Brier score
0.26

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
405 of 668

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.