The crowd called it — Millonarios FC won 4–1.
Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba 464 verified humans answered. Crowd well below the market on Millonarios, and far above it on Jaguares, a wide gap that met a Millonarios result.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Millonarios FC than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Millonarios controlling the tie at home, though with less certainty than the market priced in.
A sizeable crowd minority saw Jaguares pulling off an upset, backing them at a rate far above what the market was willing to price.
A smaller but present crowd contingent envisioned neither side breaking through, with the points shared in Bogotá.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.24
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.