The crowd called it — Vasco da Gama won 0–2.
Vitória vs Vasco da Gama: how does it end? 703 verified humans answered. Crowd on Vasco da Gama: more than double the market price, and it landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Vasco da Gama than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
A clear majority of the crowd saw Vasco da Gama leaving Salvador with the points, forming the dominant conviction in the joint map by a wide margin.
A quarter of the crowd held firm for the home side, backing Vitória to take advantage of their own ground despite the broader crowd leaning the other way.
A small but notable slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through, settling on a shared of the spoils as the likeliest stalemate scenario.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.24
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.