All resolved pollsResolved · 30 AUG 2026Upset
Leeds UnitedCrowd's pick · 44%1
BrentfordCrowd had 39%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Leeds United. Tie won 1–1.

Leeds United vs Brentford: how does it end? 689 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Leeds, crowd well below market on the draw. Which is exactly how it ended.

44%Crowd on Leeds United
38%Market price
+6Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

689 verified humans · one human, one vote
Leeds UnitedCrowd’s pick44%305 voters
Brentford39%266 voters
TieWhat happened17%118 voters
Tie won, so 17% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 44% did not. The market had Leeds United at 38%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
38%
44%
Crowd
+6 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Leeds United than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
44%305 voters
Leeds United

The crowd's plurality vision: Leeds controlling the contest at Elland Road and taking all three points in a home win.

Scenario 2
39%266 voters
Brentford

A sizeable portion of the crowd saw Brentford leaving with the win, making the away side a firm second choice in the collective picture.

Scenario 3Came true
17%118 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: a stalemate where neither side could separate themselves, points shared and no winner.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.03
Brier score
1.03

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
118 of 689

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.