All resolved pollsResolved · 31 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo de Almagro: how does it end?
Instituto (Córdoba) 1–0 San Lorenzo
The verdict

Instituto (Córdoba) 1–0 San Lorenzo

Instituto Cordoba vs San Lorenzo de Almagro: how does it end? 666 verified humans answered. Crowd went heavily above market on San Lorenzo, market's top pick landed instead.

51%Crowd on San Lorenzo de Almagro
19%Market price
+32Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

666 verified humans · one human, one vote
San Lorenzo de AlmagroCrowd’s pick51%338 voters
Instituto CordobaWhat happened32%210 voters
Tie18%118 voters
Instituto Cordoba won, so 32% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 51% did not. The market had San Lorenzo de Almagro at 19%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
19%
51%
Crowd
+32 ppts

The crowd was more confident in San Lorenzo de Almagro than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
51%338 voters
San Lorenzo de Almagro

The crowd's dominant vision: San Lorenzo controlling the contest and leaving Cordoba with nothing, the majority view by a clear margin.

Scenario 2Came true
32%210 voters
Instituto Cordoba

A minority crowd picture: Instituto holding their ground at home and grinding out a result against a fancied San Lorenzo side.

Scenario 3
18%118 voters
Tie

The least-held vision: neither side breaking the deadlock, the match ending level and honours shared in Cordoba.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.75
Brier score
0.75

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
210 of 666

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.