All resolved pollsResolved · 17 AUG 2026Upset
Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia: how does it end?
Vélez Sarsfield 1–1 Defensa y Justicia
The verdict

Vélez Sarsfield 1–1 Defensa y Justicia

Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia: how does it end? 643 verified humans answered. Crowd on Defensa y Justicia: more than double the market, and the draw landed instead.

46%Crowd on Defensa y Justicia
20%Market price
+26Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

643 verified humans · one human, one vote
Defensa y JusticiaCrowd’s pick46%297 voters
Velez Sarsfield37%240 voters
TieWhat happened16%106 voters
Tie won, so 16% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 46% did not. The market had Defensa y Justicia at 20%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
20%
46%
Crowd
+26 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Defensa y Justicia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
46%297 voters
Defensa y Justicia

The crowd's dominant vision: Defensa y Justicia travelling to Velez and leaving with the points, a conviction running far ahead of what the market implied.

Scenario 2
37%240 voters
Velez Sarsfield

A sizeable minority saw Velez Sarsfield doing what the market expected, winning at home and justifying their status as clear favourites.

Scenario 3Came true
16%106 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-favoured vision: both sides cancelling each other out and sharing the points, a scenario the market also rated below a Velez win.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.05
Brier score
1.05

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
106 of 643

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.