All resolved pollsResolved · 19 AUG 2026Upset
Independiente Santa Fe vs River Plate: how does it end?
Independiente Santa Fe 0–0 River Plate
The verdict

Independiente Santa Fe 0–0 River Plate

Independiente Santa Fe vs River Plate: how does it end? 668 verified humans answered. Crowd piled into River Plate well above market, starving the tie of any conviction. The tie landed.

55%Crowd on River Plate
43%Market price
+12Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

668 verified humans · one human, one vote
River PlateCrowd’s pick55%369 voters
Independ. Santa Fe37%245 voters
TieWhat happened8%54 voters
Tie won, so 8% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 55% did not. The market had River Plate at 43%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
43%
55%
Crowd
+12 ppts

The crowd was more confident in River Plate than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
55%369 voters
River Plate

The dominant crowd vision: River Plate controlling the contest and leaving Bogotá with the points, a clear majority conviction.

Scenario 2
37%245 voters
Independ. Santa Fe

A sizeable minority saw the home side holding their ground and taking the win on their own turf.

Scenario 3Came true
8%54 voters
Tie

A thin sliver of the crowd imagined honours even, a shared spoils scenario almost nobody was willing to back.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.29
Brier score
1.29

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
54 of 668

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.