The crowd called it — CA Vélez Sarsfield won 1–0.
Vélez Sarsfield vs Gimnasia (Mendoza) 548 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Gimnasia, below it on Vélez, yet the Vélez read still led the poll.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in CA Vélez Sarsfield than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Vélez controlling the contest at home and taking the points, though with less certainty than the market implied.
A sizeable crowd bloc saw Gimnasia pulling off the away result, a conviction running far hotter than the market's slim price suggested.
A small but present crowd faction pictured neither side breaking through, though the crowd was far less drawn to this outcome than the market was.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.40
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.