All resolved pollsResolved · 21 AUG 2026Market beat the crowd
Tigres UANL2
AtlanteCrowd had 46%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Atlante. Tigres won 2–0.

Tigres UANL vs Atlante: how does it end? 657 verified humans answered. Crowd piled onto Atlante at a fraction of the market's implied chance, their top pick, opposite to what landed.

46%Crowd on Atlante
14%Market price
+32Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

657 verified humans · one human, one vote
AtlanteCrowd’s pick46%300 voters
TigresWhat happened38%250 voters
Tie16%107 voters
Tigres won, so 38% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 46% did not. The market had Atlante at 14%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
14%
46%
Crowd
+32 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Atlante than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
46%300 voters
Atlante

The crowd's plurality vision: Atlante pulling off the upset, a result the market treated as a distant long shot but voters made their top collective call.

Scenario 2Came true
38%250 voters
Tigres

A substantial crowd bloc saw Tigres winning at home, tracking the market's favourite but falling well short of the confidence the market assigned them.

Scenario 3
16%107 voters
Tie

A smaller crowd contingent envisioned neither side breaking through, a stalemate scenario the market priced similarly and voters placed last.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.62
Brier score
0.62

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
250 of 657

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.