The crowd backed Alianza Lima. Tie won 1–1.
Melgar vs Alianza Lima: how does it end? 648 verified humans answered. Crowd piled on Alianza Lima at more than twice the market rate, but the draw neither side wanted was the outcome.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Alianza Lima than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
A dominant crowd conviction: nearly two-thirds of voters saw Alianza Lima leaving Arequipa with the win, far outpacing what the market implied.
A sizable minority saw Melgar as the home side capable of turning the market's favourite price into a winning performance on their own turf.
The smallest slice of the crowd envisioned a stalemate, a scenario the market also underweighted relative to the other two options.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.27
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.