The crowd backed Colombia. It finished 1–1.
Mexico vs Colombia 595 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Colombia, crowd well below market on the draw. And the draw landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Colombia than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Colombia controlling the contest and leaving with the win, a conviction held well above what the market was willing to price.
A closely contested alternative: nearly as many voters saw Mexico taking it, making this the crowd's near-equal second scenario rather than a distant fallback.
The crowd's least-favoured path: a shared result that barely registered in the collective picture, even as the market held it as a far more live possibility.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.15
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.