All resolved pollsResolved · 3 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ArgentinaWon · Crowd had 88%7
Burkina FasoCrowd had 8%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Argentina won 7–0.

Argentina vs Burkina Faso 598 verified humans answered. Crowd sits fractionally above market on Argentina, a near-perfect consensus with almost no dissent.

88%Crowd on Argentina
87%Market price
+1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

598 verified humans · one human, one vote
ArgentinaWhat happened88%527 voters
Burkina Faso8%45 voters
Tie4%26 voters
Argentina won, so 88% of the crowd called it. The market had Argentina at 87%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
88%527 voters
Argentina

An overwhelming share of the crowd pictured Argentina in control from the outset, leaving almost no room for doubt or alternative visions.

Scenario 2
8%45 voters
Burkina Faso

A small but committed minority held a contrarian vision of Burkina Faso overturning expectations and claiming an unlikely result.

Scenario 3
4%26 voters
Tie

The thinnest slice of the crowd imagined neither side pulling clear, with the match ending in a shared, inconclusive outcome.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.02
Brier score
0.02

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
527 of 598

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.