The crowd backed CA Vélez Sarsfield. CA Lanús won 2–0.
Lanús vs Vélez Sarsfield 550 verified humans answered. Crowd ran hard on Vélez, well above market; Lanús won, closing the gap the other way.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in CA Vélez Sarsfield than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
Nearly half the crowd saw Vélez Sarsfield taking the match outright, a conviction far stronger than the market was willing to price.
A substantial minority backed Lanús to win at home, broadly in line with the market but well short of the crowd's dominant view.
One in five voters saw neither side pulling clear, a share notably below what the market assigned to a drawn result.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.69
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.