The crowd backed Rosario. Tie won 1–1.
Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys: how does it end? 710 verified humans answered. Crowd well above market on Newell's, below on Rosario. The draw rendered both reads moot.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Rosario than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Rosario Central controlling the derby on home terms, closing out a win that the market also favoured but the crowd backed with less conviction.
A sizeable crowd minority saw Newell's Old Boys pulling off the upset, rating that outcome more than twice as likely as the market did.
The crowd's least-favoured vision: a tense, deadlocked derby that neither side could break, a scenario the market also underweighted relative to the other two options.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.03
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.