All resolved pollsResolved · 25 AUG 2026Upset
Sabah vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: how does it end?
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The verdict

Sabah vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: how does it end?

Sabah vs Hapoel Be'er Sheva: how does it end? 702 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Hapoel Be'er Sheva, well below on Sabah. The Tie landed instead.

39%Crowd on Hapoel Be'er Sheva
22%Market price
+17Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

702 verified humans · one human, one vote
Hapoel Be'er ShevaCrowd’s pick39%275 voters
Sabah38%266 voters
TieWhat happened23%161 voters
Tie won, so 23% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 39% did not. The market had Hapoel Be'er Sheva at 22%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
22%
39%
Crowd
+17 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Hapoel Be'er Sheva than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
39%275 voters
Hapoel Be'er Sheva

The crowd's modal vision: Hapoel Be'er Sheva leaving Sabah's ground with the win, a call placed far above where the market had it.

Scenario 2
38%266 voters
Sabah

A large share of the crowd saw Sabah as home winners, though the crowd as a whole rated this outcome well below the market's favoured price.

Scenario 3Came true
23%161 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-backed vision: a stalemate, with neither side separated at the final whistle. The market barely rated it higher.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.89
Brier score
0.89

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-3

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
161 of 702

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.