The crowd called it — Cuiaba won 3–0.
Cuiabá vs Náutico 602 verified humans answered. Crowd underweighted Cuiabá, overweighted Náutico vs the market, yet Cuiabá won comfortably.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was less confident in Cuiaba than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's narrow plurality saw Cuiabá taking the points at home, though far fewer held this view than the market implied.
A near-equal share of the crowd backed Náutico to cause an upset, a conviction running well ahead of where the market priced the visitors.
Roughly one in four voters saw neither side pulling clear, a share broadly in line with the market's own assessment of a stalemate.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.57
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.