All resolved pollsResolved · 28 AUG 2026
Buenos Aires: how hot on 28 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Buenos Aires: how hot on 28 August?

Buenos Aires: how hot on 28 August? 392 verified humans answered. Crowd belief so flat across three options that no true consensus formed. A rare three-way tie at the top.

18%Crowd on 20°C

How the crowd voted

392 verified humans · one human, one vote
20°CCrowd’s pick18%70 voters
21°CWhat happened18%69 voters
22°C17%66 voters
18°C15%58 voters
19°C11%44 voters
17°C11%43 voters
16°C6%24 voters
Other5%18 voters
21°C won, so 18% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 18% did not.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
18%70 voters
20°C

Voters pictured a cool late-winter afternoon, Buenos Aires sitting at a comfortable ceiling just shy of the low twenties.

Scenario 2Came true
18%69 voters
21°C

A marginally warmer vision, the crowd seeing the city nudging into the low twenties as winter loosens its grip slightly.

Scenario 3
17%66 voters
22°C

The warmest scenario in the cluster, voters imagining a brief taste of spring warmth breaking through the August chill.

Scenario 4
15%58 voters
18°C

15% of voters backed 18°C.

Scenario 5
11%44 voters
19°C

11% of voters backed 19°C.

Scenario 6
11%43 voters
17°C

11% of voters backed 17°C.

Scenario 7
6%24 voters
16°C

6% of voters backed 16°C.

Scenario 8
5%18 voters
Other

5% of voters backed Other.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.79
Brier score
0.79

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-6

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
69 of 392

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.