The crowd backed Internacional. Grêmio won 3–1.
Grêmio vs Internacional: how does it end? 711 verified humans answered. Crowd on Internacional: far above market price, a gap that went against the final result.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Internacional than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Internacional crossing the Gre-Nal divide and leaving with the points, backed by nearly half of all voters.
A sizeable minority saw Grêmio holding home advantage and converting it into a win, closer to the market's lean but still the crowd's second choice.
A small cluster envisioned the derby ending level, a stalemate scenario the market rated far more likely than the crowd did.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.59
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.