All resolved pollsResolved · 27 AUG 2026
Manila: how hot on 28 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Manila: how hot on 28 August?

Manila: how hot on 28 August? 157 verified humans answered. Dead-flat split across top picks, no crowd conviction to speak of, and the outcome landed outside all leading calls.

18%Crowd on 30°C

How the crowd voted

157 verified humans · one human, one vote
30°CCrowd’s pick18%29 voters
29°C18%29 voters
28°CWhat happened18%28 voters
32°C18%28 voters
31°C15%23 voters
27°C10%15 voters
Other3%5 voters
28°C won, so 18% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 18% did not.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
18%29 voters
30°C

A slice of the crowd saw Manila hitting a warm but measured peak, picturing a hot late-August day that stays just within a familiar comfort zone for the city.

Scenario 2
18%29 voters
29°C

An equal share pictured Manila running slightly cooler, a day that feels hot but stops short of the sharper heat the other camps anticipated.

Scenario 3Came true
18%28 voters
28°C

18% of voters backed 28°C — the result.

Scenario 4
18%28 voters
32°C

A third cluster saw Manila pushing into genuine intensity, picturing a sweltering late-August afternoon well above the other leading calls.

Scenario 5
15%23 voters
31°C

15% of voters backed 31°C.

Scenario 6
10%15 voters
27°C

10% of voters backed 27°C.

Scenario 7
3%5 voters
Other

3% of voters backed Other.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.80
Brier score
0.80

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-6

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
28 of 157

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.