All resolved pollsResolved · 26 AUG 2026
Buenos Aires: how hot on 26 August?
Resolved
The verdict

Buenos Aires: how hot on 26 August?

Buenos Aires: how hot on 26 August? 419 verified humans answered. Crowd leaned warm; the cooler fringe scenario at 17°C is where the outcome landed.

24%Crowd on 21°C

How the crowd voted

419 verified humans · one human, one vote
21°CCrowd’s pick24%102 voters
20°C23%98 voters
17°CWhat happened17%70 voters
19°C14%60 voters
18°C11%48 voters
Other10%41 voters
17°C won, so 17% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 24% did not.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
24%102 voters
21°C

The crowd's top vision: a warm Buenos Aires winter day pushing into the low twenties, the scenario that drew the most collective backing.

Scenario 2
23%98 voters
20°C

A near-twin to the leading pick, the crowd saw 20°C as almost equally plausible, painting a picture of a comfortably mild afternoon.

Scenario 3Came true
17%70 voters
17°C

The cooler dissenting read, backed by a meaningful minority who saw the day staying firmly in winter territory rather than nudging toward warmth.

Scenario 4
14%60 voters
19°C

14% of voters backed 19°C.

Scenario 5
11%48 voters
18°C

11% of voters backed 18°C.

Scenario 6
10%41 voters
Other

10% of voters backed Other.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.84
Brier score
0.84

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-4

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
70 of 419

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.