All resolved pollsResolved · 15 AUG 2026Upset
PlatenseCrowd had 15%1
Boca JuniorsCrowd's pick · 79%1
The verdict

The crowd backed Boca Juniors. Tie won 1–1.

Platense vs Boca Juniors: how does it end? 271 verified humans answered. Crowd ran far above market on Boca win; the draw neither side favoured was what landed.

79%Crowd on Boca Juniors
44%Market price
+35Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

271 verified humans · one human, one vote
Boca JuniorsCrowd’s pick79%213 voters
Platense15%41 voters
TieWhat happened6%17 voters
Tie won, so 6% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 79% did not. The market had Boca Juniors at 44%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
44%
79%
Crowd
+35 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Boca Juniors than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
79%213 voters
Boca Juniors

The crowd's dominant vision: Boca Juniors leaving Platense's ground with the win, a near-consensus read that dwarfed every other possibility.

Scenario 2
15%41 voters
Platense

A minority crowd vision of a home upset, with Platense finding enough to beat Boca on their own turf.

Scenario 3Came true
6%17 voters
Tie

The crowd's least-held scenario: both sides cancelling each other out and sharing the points in a stalemate.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.53
Brier score
1.53

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
17 of 271

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.