The crowd called it — Estudiantes La Plata won 4–0.
Estudiantes vs Gimnasia: the La Plata derby 258 verified humans answered. Crowd leaned hard on Estudiantes, well above market, and well below market on a Tie. That gap aligned with the result.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Estudiantes La Plata than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's dominant vision: Estudiantes controlling the derby on home turf, a conviction held far more firmly than the market reflected.
A minority of the crowd pictured Gimnasia pulling off the upset, keeping a rival scenario alive but well behind the leading conviction.
The crowd largely dismissed a stalemate, placing far less weight on this outcome than the market did, making it the most market-divergent underdog scenario.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.17
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.