All resolved pollsResolved · 27 AUG 2026Crowd beat the market
LlanerosCrowd had 25%0
MillonariosWon · Crowd had 58%2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Millonarios won 0–2.

Llaneros vs Millonarios: how does it end? 715 verified humans answered. Crowd ran far above market on Millonarios win, far below on Llaneros and draw, and the result followed.

58%Crowd on Millonarios
33%Market price
+25Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

715 verified humans · one human, one vote
MillonariosWhat happened58%418 voters
Llaneros25%176 voters
Tie17%121 voters
Millonarios won, so 58% of the crowd called it. The market had Millonarios at 33%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
33%
58%
Crowd
+25 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Millonarios than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
58%418 voters
Millonarios

A majority of the crowd saw Millonarios taking control and closing out the match, dismissing the market's suggestion of an open three-way contest.

Scenario 2
25%176 voters
Llaneros

A quarter of the crowd held out for a Llaneros upset, backing the home side to defy the collective lean and claim the points.

Scenario 3
17%121 voters
Tie

A smaller slice of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through, with the spoils shared in a stalemate neither team could separate.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.27
Brier score
0.27

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
418 of 715

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.