All resolved pollsResolved · 18 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle: how does it end?
Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle
The verdict

Deportes Tolima 0–1 Independiente del Valle

Deportes Tolima vs Independiente del Valle: how does it end? 659 verified humans answered. Crowd sits 21 points above market on Ind. Del Valle, the widest gap in the poll.

59%Crowd on Ind. del Valle
38%Market price
+21Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

659 verified humans · one human, one vote
Ind. del ValleWhat happened59%386 voters
Tolima24%160 voters
Tie17%113 voters
Ind. del Valle won, so 59% of the crowd called it. The market had Ind. del Valle at 38%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
38%
59%
Crowd
+21 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Ind. del Valle than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
59%386 voters
Ind. del Valle

The crowd's dominant vision: Independiente del Valle leaving Tolima's ground with the result, backed by a clear majority of verified voters.

Scenario 2
24%160 voters
Tolima

A sizeable minority sees Deportes Tolima taking the win on home soil, though the crowd places this well below the market's implied chance.

Scenario 3
17%113 voters
Tie

The draw is the crowd's least favoured outcome, with fewer than one in five voters seeing the match ending level, also below its market price.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.25
Brier score
0.25

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
386 of 659

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.