All resolved pollsResolved · 20 SEPT 2026Crowd & market agreed
San Lorenzo de Almagro0
Boca Juniors2
The verdict

The crowd called it — CA Boca Juniors won 0–2.

San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors 554 verified humans answered. Crowd ran well above market on Boca Juniors, well below on a draw. The result sided with the crowd.

60%Crowd on CA Boca Juniors
40%Market price
+20Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

554 verified humans · one human, one vote
CA Boca JuniorsWhat happened60%332 voters
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro27%147 voters
Tie14%75 voters
CA Boca Juniors won, so 60% of the crowd called it. The market had CA Boca Juniors at 40%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
40%
60%
Crowd
+20 ppts

The crowd was more confident in CA Boca Juniors than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
60%332 voters
CA Boca Juniors

The crowd's dominant vision: Boca Juniors leaving San Lorenzo's ground with the points, the single scenario that drew clear majority conviction.

Scenario 2
27%147 voters
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro

A meaningful minority saw San Lorenzo turning the match at home, backing the hosts to take all three points against the visiting side.

Scenario 3
14%75 voters
Tie

A smaller slice of the crowd pictured neither side breaking through, with the spoils shared and the match ending level.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.25
Brier score
0.25

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
332 of 554

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.