All resolved pollsResolved · 5 SEPT 2026Upset
Nottingham ForestCrowd had 29%0
Tottenham Hotspur0
The verdict

The crowd backed Tottenham. Tie won 0–0.

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: how does it end? 650 verified humans answered. Crowd on Tottenham: far above market, draw severely underweighted. And the draw landed.

62%Crowd on Tottenham
36%Market price
+26Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

650 verified humans · one human, one vote
TottenhamCrowd’s pick62%406 voters
Nottingham Forest29%186 voters
TieWhat happened9%58 voters
Tie won, so 9% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 62% did not. The market had Tottenham at 36%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
36%
62%
Crowd
+26 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Tottenham than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
62%406 voters
Tottenham

The dominant crowd vision: Tottenham leaving the City Ground with the points, backed by nearly two-thirds of all verified voters in a striking show of collective conviction.

Scenario 2
29%186 voters
Nottingham Forest

A sizeable minority saw Forest holding their ground at home and taking the win, keeping the crowd's read from being a total one-way street.

Scenario 3Came true
9%58 voters
Tie

The draw scenario was the crowd's clear blind spot, attracting only a thin slice of voters despite the market treating it as a live and meaningful possibility.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.30
Brier score
1.30

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
58 of 650

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.