The crowd backed Queretaro. Toluca won 1–2.
Queretaro vs Toluca: how does it end? 632 verified humans answered. Crowd ran Queretaro well above market price, with Toluca underweighted. The market's call landed.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Queretaro than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd saw Queretaro holding home advantage and turning it into a result, backing the hosts at a rate that outpaced what the market considered fair.
A matching share of the crowd envisioned Toluca travelling well and taking the points, though the crowd still underweighted this path relative to the market's implied probability.
One in five voters pictured neither side breaking the deadlock, a shared-spoils finish that the crowd and market both rated as the least likely of the three paths.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.56
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.