All resolved pollsResolved · 7 SEPT 2026Upset
Barracas CentralCrowd had 24%0
Argentinos JuniorsCrowd's pick · 63%0
The verdict

The crowd backed Argentinos Juniors. Tie won 0–0.

Barracas Central vs Argentinos Juniors: how does it end? 732 verified humans answered. The crowd's read sat 17 points above the market's price on Argentinos Juniors, and it went the other way.

63%Crowd on Argentinos Juniors
46%Market price
+17Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

732 verified humans · one human, one vote
Argentinos JuniorsCrowd’s pick63%458 voters
Barracas Central24%173 voters
TieWhat happened14%101 voters
Tie won, so 14% of the crowd called it — a plurality of 63% did not. The market had Argentinos Juniors at 46%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
46%
63%
Crowd
+17 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Argentinos Juniors than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and it went against the result.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Crowd’s pick
63%458 voters
Argentinos Juniors

63% of voters backed Argentinos Juniors — the crowd’s favourite, but not what happened.

Scenario 2
24%173 voters
Barracas Central

24% of voters backed Barracas Central.

Scenario 3Came true
14%101 voters
Tie

14% of voters backed Tie — the result.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology1.19
Brier score
1.19

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
101 of 732

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.