All resolved pollsResolved · 31 AUG 2026Crowd & market agreed
BarcelonaWon · Crowd had 86%5
Rayo Vallecano2
The verdict

The crowd called it — Barcelona won 5–2.

Barcelona vs Vallecano: how does it end? 717 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Barcelona win, well below market on the draw.

86%Crowd on Barcelona
83%Market price
+3Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

717 verified humans · one human, one vote
BarcelonaWhat happened86%618 voters
Vallecano9%63 voters
Tie5%36 voters
Barcelona won, so 86% of the crowd called it. The market had Barcelona at 83%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
83%
86%
Crowd
+3 ppts

The crowd was more confident in Barcelona than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
86%618 voters
Barcelona

An overwhelming majority of the crowd saw Barcelona controlling the contest and taking all three points, leaving little room for doubt.

Scenario 2
9%63 voters
Vallecano

A small but present slice of the crowd envisioned Vallecano pulling off an upset and leaving with the win.

Scenario 3
5%36 voters
Tie

A narrow fringe of voters saw neither side breaking through decisively, picturing the match ending level.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.03
Brier score
0.03

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
618 of 717

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.