All resolved pollsResolved · 7 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
ColombiaWon · Crowd had 77%2
PeruCrowd had 13%0
The verdict

The crowd called it — Colombia won 2–0.

Colombia vs Peru 593 verified humans answered. Crowd fades the Tie hard, piles into Peru where the market is coldest.

77%Crowd on Colombia
78%Market price
-1Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

593 verified humans · one human, one vote
ColombiaWhat happened77%459 voters
Peru13%80 voters
Tie9%54 voters
Colombia won, so 77% of the crowd called it. The market had Colombia at 78%.
The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
77%459 voters
Colombia

The dominant vision: Colombia in control from start to finish, the crowd's heaviest concentration by far, mirroring the market almost exactly.

Scenario 2
13%80 voters
Peru

A contrarian pocket: the crowd backed Peru at more than double the market's implied chance, seeing an upset path the price largely dismissed.

Scenario 3
9%54 voters
Tie

The crowd's least favoured vision, sitting well below the market's implied probability, treating a stalemate as a remote and unlikely outcome.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.08
Brier score
0.08

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-1

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
459 of 593

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.