All resolved pollsResolved · 12 OCT 2026Crowd & market agreed
Universidad de Chile6
Ñublense0
The verdict

The crowd called it — CF Universidad de Chile won 6–0.

Universidad de Chile vs Ñublense 549 verified humans answered. Crowd underweights home win vs market, yet both converged on the same side.

63%Crowd on CF Universidad de Chile
66%Market price
-3Points of divergence

How the crowd voted

549 verified humans · one human, one vote
CF Universidad de ChileWhat happened63%344 voters
CD Ñublense19%107 voters
Tie18%98 voters
CF Universidad de Chile won, so 63% of the crowd called it. The market had CF Universidad de Chile at 66%.

Where the crowd split from the market

Market depth: deep
Market
66%
63%
Crowd
-3 ppts

The crowd was less confident in CF Universidad de Chile than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.

The market price is a yardstick, not a recommendation. The crowd’s read is sentiment, not a prediction or financial advice.

What the crowd was thinking

Scenario 1Came true
63%344 voters
CF Universidad de Chile

The crowd's dominant vision: Universidad de Chile controlling the match at home, with nearly two-thirds of voters locking in a home victory as their single read.

Scenario 2
19%107 voters
CD Ñublense

A notable minority held a contrarian picture, seeing Ñublense pulling off an away result and defying the weight of crowd and market opinion alike.

Scenario 3
18%98 voters
Tie

A slim but real share of the crowd envisioned neither side breaking through, picturing a stalemate as the match's most likely neutral resolution.

How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.21
Brier score
0.21

0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.

Conviction
1-in-2

The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.

Ballots correct
344 of 549

Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.

Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.