The crowd called it — Palmeiras won 1–2.
Fluminense vs Palmeiras 565 verified humans answered. Crowd above market on Palmeiras, below on Tie, and the result sided with the crowd's tilt.
How the crowd voted
Where the crowd split from the market
The crowd was more confident in Palmeiras than the betting price implied. That gap is the interesting part of this poll, and the crowd had it right.
What the crowd was thinking
The crowd's plurality vision: Palmeiras controlling the contest and leaving Rio with the points, the single most-backed outcome on the joint map.
A substantial minority saw Fluminense turning home advantage into a result, making this the second most populated corner of the crowd's collective picture.
The crowd's least-favoured vision, a stalemate between the sides, sitting well below where the market placed it and drawing the thinnest share of collective belief.
How well calibrated was the crowd?Brier score, conviction and full methodology0.52
0 is a perfect confident call, 0.25 a coin flip. Higher means the crowd leaned away from what happened.
The odds the crowd’s own split implied for its top pick. Shorter odds mean more conviction.
Ballots whose pick matched the result. Computed from the crowd’s own vote split — no betting market involved.
Crowd sentiment is shown only after a poll closes, never mid-vote. “Crowd called it” means the crowd’s top pick matched the result; it is not a claim the crowd is right in general. Aggregate data from World ID voters — a crowd view, not a prediction or advice.